Report on Ecuador’s Political Situation: May 2023

Por Morales & Asociados y Péndulo

May: A Turning Point Month for Ecuadorian Democracy.

Not only because on May 14th there will be a change of authorities in the National Assembly, sectional authorities assume a reconfiguration that positions UNES as the first political minority in the country, raising fears and expectations for a possible return of the “Correismo”.

It is also a turning point because of the impeachment against Guillermo Lasso. Since the announcement of this possibility, scenarios have been designed and modified according to firm, changing, or ambiguous positions in an environment of uncertainty that paralyzes decisions on a national and international scale.

FTA with China: What are the opportunities?

The Ministry of Production reported that the entry into force of this trade agreement will allow preferential access for 99% of Ecuador’s current exports to China. The products with the greatest opportunities are shrimp, bananas, roses and flowers, cocoa, coffee, dragon fruit, pineapple, mango, blueberries, quinoa, processed foods, fresh and canned fruits.

April was another violent month, with the following events taking place:

  • The femicide of three young women – Nayeli Tapia, Denisse Reyna, and Yuliana Macías – followed by the murder of three female prison officers a week later.
  • The U.S. Embassy in Ecuador warned of possible attacks in Guayaquil.
  • Nine fishermen and seafood vendors were shot dead in the fishing port of Esmeraldas.

Geopolitics: Growing diplomatic and political weight

China no longer wants only to be the dominant commercial partner on the planet, as evidenced by its impressive growth in recent decades. Now, it aims to consolidate its diplomatic and political power.

Zero execution vs. growing needs

When economic resources are limited, one must tighten one’s belt. However, if resources are available and not executed, it causes at least indignation. According to the report from the Observatory of Public Spending of the Citizenship and Development Foundation, the 26 entities under the Executive branch have spent less than 10% of their annual budget.

Realignment of DP within the government?

Although the Popular Democracy Party (DP), led by former president Oswaldo Hurtado, ceased to exist decades ago, its high-ranking members have continued to participate in political life and directly in government spheres.

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